This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card at Florida. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to win a great deal of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will attempt to receive my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 50-100 entrances at that $25k prize, and then I will likely have a couple shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter everywhere this battle goes. I think Gifford’s best shot at a win will be gearing a guillotine. Aside from that, I think we have a fairly safe win here using Roberts and that is what I am searching for. I want the wins that are safer in cash and that I will worry about who’s going to score the greatest in GPPs. I believe we can get away from him in the GPPs in his price because when he puts up 90 DK points in a win then won’t win $25k. It will help us win in money games though and I’d be surprised if he had a low scoring win . I believe he is good for 80-100 points here and I am totally okay with this in my money lineup.
GPP play of the week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is the GPP play of the week and he has the greatest ITD chances on the card at -222. This is a setup struggle for him to receive a knockout and I believe this is quite likely going to happen in the first round. That should put Hardy over 100 things and I am interested in that. Hardy will be one of my top plays of this week, but he’s GPP only for me personally. We can not trust him sufficient for cash games, so that’s why I like Roberts more in that format. I do think Hardy can outscore Roberts even though they both win, and he’s $200 cheaper. That could knock Roberts off the very best lineup and even with higher ownership we could win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup so long as he receives the early KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is lined at -130 and that is too good for me to pass in GPPs.
Underdog drama of the week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no longer the underdog on the betting line (-120) however DraftKings salaries don’t change as soon as they’re released. We receive Teixeira here for $400 less costly than Cutelaba and he is preferred to get the win. In addition, I believe he can win in the 1st round with a score and submission over 90 points. That would provide him a good shot at being to the perfect lineup. I will be targeting both sides of this fight in GPPs since I don’t expect it to go all 3 rounds, but that value on Teixeira is exactly what I enjoy the most and we have to own”underdogs” within our DK lineups together with the $50k salary cap. I think the obvious path to success for Glover is to the floor and that’s precisely what I expect his game must be. I enjoy him to find a entry win if he is able to land takedowns and he’ll be among my greatest possessed underdogs this week.
Fade of the week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I know people were expecting me to place Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She’s a solid fade too… But I’m going with Esparza as my fade this week and that I have zero lineups including her. In general, Esparza is a decent wrestler and we like wrestlers in DraftKings. I simply don’t see wrestling in her best interest against Jandiroba and that I believe she uses her wrestling at shield to attempt to keep this fight on the toes. All the threat is on the ground in this matchup and Carla has the better boxing of both. I think she could win a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I’d guess it sets up around ~60 DK points. That is not going to cut it at $8.2k so I just don’t see how she ends up about the $25k lineup this week if she does win, and that’s why she is my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 69-44 for +224.83u (+$22,483) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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